Metals show mixed performance, with LME nickel, SHFE nickel, and stainless steel falling by more than 1%, and polysilicon dropping by over 3% to hit a new low [SMM Daily Review]

SMM News on June 23:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally rose, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel falling. SHFE aluminum dropped by 0.24%, and SHFE nickel fell by 1.13%. The rest of the metals rose, with SHFE lead up by 0.39% and SHFE tin up by 0.37%. The fluctuations in the increase of other metals were relatively small. The main alumina contract rose by 0.38%, while the main casting aluminum contract fell by 0.08%.

In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract fell by 0.77%, and the main polysilicon contract dropped by 3.3%, hitting a record low of 30,605 yuan/mt during the session, marking its fifth consecutive decline. Silicon metal fell by 0.2%. The main European container shipping contract dropped by 4.67%.

The ferrous metals series showed mixed performance, with stainless steel falling by 1.16% and iron ore rising by 0.5%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose by 1.25%, while coke fell by 0.22%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:03, overseas market base metals showed mixed performance, with LME copper, LME tin, and LME nickel all falling. LME tin dropped by 0.44%, and LME nickel fell by 1.14%. LME aluminum rose by 0.75%, and the fluctuations in the % change of other metals were relatively small.

In the precious metals segment, as of 15:03, COMEX gold fell by 0.48%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.18%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 0.03%, and SHFE silver rose by 0.35%.

Market conditions as of 15:03 today

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Macro Front

Domestic Aspects:

[NPC Standing Committee: Amend and Improve Regulations on Addressing "Cut-throat Competition" on Platforms] Huang Haihua, spokesperson for the Legislative Affairs Commission of the NPC Standing Committee and Director of the Research Office, stated at a press conference for spokespersons of the Legislative Affairs Commission of the NPC Standing Committee on the 23rd that the second review draft of the amendments to the Anti-Unfair Competition Law will implement the spirit of the CPC Central Committee on comprehensively addressing "cut-throat competition" on platforms. It will add provisions on the fair competition review system, amend and improve regulations on addressing "cut-throat competition" on platforms, revise and improve relevant provisions on the coordination mechanism for anti-unfair competition work, and clarify the responsibilities of market supervision departments in anti-unfair competition work. Huang Haihua said that the obligations of platform operators to address unfair competition behaviors by operators within the platform will be improved. The criteria for constituting confusing unfair competition behaviors, such as using others' trademarks as business names and setting others' product names or company names as search keywords, will be further clarified. It was introduced that the second review draft of the amendments will also clarify the constituent elements of unfair competition behaviors such as infringing on data rights and interests and malicious trading. It will focus on addressing the issue of large enterprises and other operators abusing their relative advantageous positions to default on payments to small and medium-sized enterprises, and raise the level of administrative penalty authorities. (Cailian Press)

[Hangzhou: Housing Provident Fund Can Be Used to Directly Pay Down Payment for Home Purchase] According to "Hangzhou Release," to alleviate the pressure on housing provident fund contributors in paying the down payment for home purchases, the Hangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center has launched a service allowing contributors to directly use their provident fund to pay the down payment for newly built commercial properties purchased in Hangzhou, with full online processing support. The online processing function for second-hand properties is currently under development and will be launched soon.

►On June 23, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1710 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 15:03, the US dollar index rose by 0.17% to 98.95. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that he supports considering an interest rate cut in July, believing that tariffs will not trigger sustained inflation but are rather a one-off factor. He emphasized that the Fed should not wait until the job market collapses before taking action, noting that while the current job market is stable, there have been some negative signs, such as an increase in the unemployment rate among recent graduates. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said that the fundamental economic conditions in the US are shifting towards a situation that may require an interest rate cut, but she suggested that a July cut might be premature, believing that a cut in the fall could be more appropriate. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will attend hearings in the US Senate and House of Representatives this week, and US PCE data will also be released this Friday.

Macro:

Today, data including the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for June in France, Germany, and the Eurozone, the preliminary SPGI Services PMI and Manufacturing PMI for June in the UK, and the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for June and the annualized total of existing home sales for May in the US will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that: Mary Daly, the 2027 FOMC voter and President of the San Francisco Fed, will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy insights at the 100th Annual Meeting of the Western Economic Association International; European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver an introductory speech at a hearing held by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs; and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will give a speech on monetary policy and banking.

Crude oil:

As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets rose together, with US crude oil up 1.46% and Brent crude oil up 1.44%, both surging to their highest levels since January due to a rebound in regional risk premiums. Both benchmark crude oils jumped over 3% at the open, touching 81.40 US dollars and 78.40 US dollars respectively, hitting five-month highs before paring some of their gains.

Iran is the third-largest crude oil producer in OPEC. Market participants are concerned that Iran's retaliatory actions may include blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's crude oil supply passes. "The risk of damage to oil infrastructure... has multiplied," said June Goh, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities. Although there are alternative pipeline routes in the Middle East, if the Strait of Hormuz becomes inaccessible, not all crude oil can be exported. Goh said that shipping companies would avoid the region even more.

Analysts said that without a tangible supply disruption, the current geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to persist. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a market commentary on Sunday that some long positions accumulated after the recent rebound in oil prices, if liquidated, could limit the upside room for oil prices. (Webstock Inc.)

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